Longtime financial strategist Jeff Caughron is retiring this year from The Baker Group after decades of service in roles including CEO and Chairman. He offers…
Summertime officially arrived this week with the solstice, and the Fed Chairman celebrated by delivering his semi-annual Humphry Hawkins testimony on consecutive days to both…
Summer is here and things are warming up. That’s certainly true of the labor market, or at least the payrolls growth component of the May…
Our friends at The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this week that the US economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year. After…
Less than six months ago the US 10yr Treasury Note yield hit an intraday high of 4.33%. Yesterday it ended the session more than 100bps…
Markets are relatively calm as we close out the last week of the quarter. And oh, what a quarter it’s been. Following a year that…
Spring has sprung, the days are getting longer, and everything’s starting to green up nicely. So why does the Fed Chairman looks so tired? Well,…
Today is the first anniversary of the Fed’s initial rate hike in its campaign to crush inflation, and it’s Saint Patrick’s Day as well. Perfect…
Overview: The speed and magnitude of Fed rate hikes has been unprecedented, and we have emphasized that if continued it would likely force something to…
Fed Chairman Jay Powell warned us that the path to bringing down inflation was “probably going to be bumpy,” and indeed the bond market is…
A week ago today, we found out that the US unemployment rate for January was 3.4%, the lowest level since “Broadway Joe” Namath guaranteed the…
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan once observed that asset price bubbles go up very slowly, then when you least expect it, they reverse very sharply.…
Bank balance sheets were adversely affected in multiple ways by the speed and magnitude of the rising rate environment in 2022. Most noticeable was the…
We’re three weeks into a new year and across the curve the bond market is off to one of its best starts in decades. The…
All news is old news as the market veterans say. And inflation, it seems, is last year’s story if appetite for US Treasuries is any…
We entered the first week of the year with a stern reminder from the Federal Reserve by way of their minutes from last month’s FOMC…
In a holiday-shortened week, we gobbled up some small helpings of economic data but the main show was Wednesday’s release of the minutes for the…
Friendly inflation data and apparent political gridlock have put financial markets in a good mood as this week draws to a close. As the dust…
The first week of November was not boring for financial markets as we got an important read on both the labor market and the current…
That great monetary economist William Shakespeare wrote that “Those who rush, stumble and fall”. This observation may be starting to take hold with respect to…